《TAIPEI TIMES》 CIER lifts GDP growth to 10.35％

Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research president Lien Hsien-ming speaks to reporters in Taipei on June 1. Photo: Liao Chia-ning, Taipei Times

MILESTONE: Taiwan’s exports could surpass US$900 billion this year, setting a record and representing growth of about 50 percent from last year, CIER’s president said

By Crystal Hsu / Staff reporter The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research （CIER, 中華經濟研究院） yesterday raised its GDP growth forecast for Taiwan this year to 10.35 percent, the highest among domestic research institutes, citing stronger-than-expected exports in the first half of the year.

Domestic demand is expected to contribute 4.73 percentage points to this year’s growth, while external demand would add 5.62 percentage points, the institute said.

The upgrade highlighted the strength of artificial intelligence （AI）-related demand and robust orders from major US technology companies, CIER president Lien Hsien-ming （連賢明） told a news conference in Taipei.

“If the momentum continues, Taiwan’s exports could surpass US$900 billion this year, setting a new record,” Lien said.

That would represent growth of about 50 percent from last year and serve as a major driver of economic expansion, he said.

Taiwan has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the global AI investment boom, with its semiconductor industry playing a critical role in supplying advanced chips, servers and other hardware essential to data centers and AI infrastructure, the institute said.

CIER expects economic growth to remain elevated, but gradually slow through the rest of the year, forecasting GDP growth of 14.55 percent in the first quarter, 10.96 percent in the second quarter, 10.63 percent in the third quarter and 6.04 percent in the final three months.

The expected slowdown reflects a high comparison base rather than a significant weakening in underlying demand, Lien said.

The institute also slightly raised its forecast for consumer inflation to 2.02 percent this year, just above the central bank’s 2 percent target.

It is too early to determine whether stronger inflation pressures would prompt the central bank to consider raising interest rates, Lien said, adding that the outlook would depend heavily on energy prices and geopolitical developments.

Inflationary pressures could ease if global risks subside, he said.

Tsai Yu-tai （蔡鈺泰）, head of the statistics department at the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, said some producer-price increases have been passed on to consumers, particularly in memory chips, computers and other electronic products.

However, such items account for 1.6 percent of the consumer price index basket, limiting their overall impact on inflation, he said.

新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES